In this proof we (finally!) finish the proof of case one.
As usual, we throughout fix a nonstandard natural
and a complex polynomial of degree
whose zeroes are all in
. We assume that
is a zero of
whose standard part is
, and assume that
has no critical points in
. Let
be a random zero of
and
a random critical point. Under these circumstances,
is uniformly distributed on
and
is almost surely zero. In particular,

and
is infinitesimal in probability, hence infinitesimal in distribution. Let
be the expected value of
(thus also of
) and
its variance. I think we won’t need the nonstandard-exponential bound
this time, as its purpose was fulfilled last time.
Last time we reduced the proof of case one to a sequence of lemmata. We now prove them.
1. Preliminary bounds
Lemma 1 Let
be a compact set. Then

uniformly for
.
Proof: It suffices to prove this for a compact exhaustion, and thus it suffices to assume

By underspill, it suffices to show that for every standard
we have

We first give the proof for
.
First suppose that
. Since
is infinitesimal in distribution,

here we need the
and the
since
is not a bounded continuous function of
. Since
we have

but we know that

so, solving for
, we get

we absorbed a
into the
. That gives

Since
is a polynomial of degee
and
is monic (so the top coefficient of
is
) this gives a bound

even for
.
Now for
, we use the bound

to transfer the above argument. 
2. Uniform convergence of
Lemma 2 There is a standard compact set
and a standard countable set
such that

all elements of
are isolated in
, and
is infinitesimal.
Tao claims

where
is a large standard natural, which makes no sense since the left-hand side should be large (and in particular, have positive standard part). I think this is just a typo though.
Proof: Since
was assumed far from
we have

We also have

so for every standard natural
there is a standard natural
such that

Multiplying both sides by
we see that

where
is the variety of critical points
. Let
be the set of standard parts of zeroes in
; then
has cardinality
and so is finite. For every zero
, either
- For every
,

so the standard part of
is
, or
- There is an
such that
is infinitesimal.
So we may set
; then
is standard and countable, and does not converge to a point in
, so
is standard and
is infinitesimal.
I was a little stumped on why
is compact; Tao doesn’t prove this. It turns out it’s obvious, I was just too clueless to see it. The construction of
forces that for any
, there are only finitely many
with
, so if
clusters anywhere, then it can only cluster on
. This gives the desired compactness. 
The above proof is basically just the proof of Ascoli’s compactness theorem adopted to this setting and rephrased to replace the diagonal argument (or 👏 KEEP 👏 PASSING 👏 TO 👏 SUBSEQUENCES 👏) with the choice of a nonstandard natural. I think the point is that, once we have chosen a nontrivial ultrafilter on
, a nonstandard function is the same thing as sequence of functions, and the ultrafilter tells us which subsequences of reals to pass to.
3. Approximating
outside of
We break up the approximation lemma into multiple parts. Let
be a standard compact set which does not meet
. Given a curve
we denote its arc length by
; we always assume that an arc length does exist.
A point which stumped me for a humiliatingly long time is the following:
Lemma 3 Let
. Then there is a curve
from
to
which misses
and satisfies the uniform estimate

Proof: We use the decomposition of
into the arc

and the discrete set
. We try to set
to be the line segment
but there are two things that could go wrong. If
hits a point of
we can just perturb it slightly by an error which is negligible compared to
. Otherwise we might hit a point of
in which case we need to go the long way around. However,
and
are compact, so we have a uniform bound

Therefore we can instead consider a curve
which goes all the way around
, leaving
. This curve has length
for
close to
(and if
are far from
we can just perturb a line segment without generating too much error). Using our uniform max bound above we see that this choice of
is valid. 
Recall that the moments
of
are infinitesimal.
Since
is infinitesimal, and
is a positive distance from any infinitesimals (since it is standard compact), we have

uniformly in
. Therefore
has no critical points near
and so
is holomorphic on
.
We first need a version of the fundamental theorem.
Lemma 4 Let
be a contour in
of length
. Then

Proof: Our bounds on
imply that we can take the Taylor expansion

of
in terms of
, which is uniform in
. Taking expectations preserves the constant term (since it doesn’t depend on
), kills the linear term, and replaces the quadratic term with a
, thus

At the start of this series we showed

Plugging in the Taylor expansion of
we get

Simplifying the integral we get

whence the claim. 
Lemma 5 Uniformly for
one has

Proof: Applying the previous two lemmata we get

It remains to simplify

Taylor expanding
and using the self-similarity of the Taylor expansion we get

which gives that bound. 
Lemma 6 Let
. Then

uniformly in
.
Proof: We may assume that
is small enough depending on
, since the constant in the big-
notation can depend on
as well, and
only appears next to implied constants. Now given
we can find
from
to
which is always moving at a speed which is uniformly bounded from below and always moving in a direction towards the origin. Indeed, we can take
to be a line segment which has been perturbed to miss the discrete set
, and possibly arced to miss
(say if
is far from
). By compactness of
we can choose the bounds on
to be not just uniform in time but also in space (i.e. in
), and besides that
is a curve through a compact set
which misses
. Indeed, one can take
to be a closed ball containing
, and then cut out small holes in
around
and
, whose radii are bounded below since
is compact. Since the moments of
are infinitesimal one has

Here we used
to enforce

By the previous lemma,

Integrating this result along
we get

Applying our preliminary bound, the previous paragraph, and the fact that
, thus

we get

We treat the first term first:

For the second term,
while
, so
is bounded from below, whence

Thus we simplify

It will be convenient to instead write this as

Now we deal with the pesky integral. Since
is moving towards
at a speed which is bounded from below uniformly in “spacetime” (that is,
), there is a standard
such that if
then

since
is going towards
. (Tao’s argument puzzles me a bit here because he claims that the real inner product
is uniformly bounded from below in spacetime, which seems impossible if
. I agree with its conclusion though.) Exponentiating both sides we get

which bounds

Since
is standard, it dominates the infinitesimal
, so after shrinking
a little we get a new bound

Since
is exponentially small in
, in particular it is smaller than
. Plugging in everything we get the claim. 
4. Control on zeroes away from
After the gargantuan previous section, we can now show the “approximate level set” property that we discussed last time.
Lemma 7 Let
be a standard compact set which misses
and
standard. Then for every zero
of
,

Last time we showed that this implies

Thus all the zeroes of
either live in
or a neighborhood of a level set of
. Proof: Plugging in
in the approximation

we get

Several posts ago, we proved
as a consequence of Grace’s theorem, so
. In particular, if we solve for
we get

Using

plugging in
, and taking logarithms, we get

Now
and
misses the standard compact set
, so since
we have

(since
and
is infinitesimal). So we can Taylor expand in
about
:

Taking expectations and using
,

Plugging in
we see the claim. 
I’m not sure who originally came up with the idea to reason like this; I think Tao credits M. J. Miller. Whoever it was had an interesting idea, I think:
is a level set of
, but one that a priori doesn’t tell us much about
. We have just replaced it with a level set of
, a function that is explicitly closely related to
, but at the price of an error term.
5. Fine control
We finish this series. If you want, you can let
be a standard real. I think, however, that it will be easier to think of
as “infinitesimal, but not as infinitesimal as the term of the form o(1)”. In other words,
is smaller than any positive element of the ordered field
; briefly,
is infinitesimal with respect to
. We still reserve
to mean an infinitesimal with respect to
. Now
by underspill, since this is already true if
is standard and
. Underspill can also be used to transfer facts at scale
to scale
. I think you can formalize this notion of “iterated infinitesimals” by taking an iterated ultrapower of
in the theory of ordered rings.
Let us first bound
. Recall that
so
but in fact we can get a sharper bound. Since
is discrete we can get
arbitrarily close to whatever we want, say
or
. This will give us bounds on
when we take the Taylor expansion

Lemma 8 Let
be standard. Then

Proof: Let
be a standard compact set which misses
and
a zero of
. Since
(since
is close to
) and
has positive standard part (since
) we can take Taylor expansions

and

in
about
. Taking expectations we have

and similarly for
. Thus

since

Since

we have

Now
so
, whence

Now recall that
is uniformly distributed on
, so we can choose
so that

Thus

which we can plug in to get the claim. 
Now we prove the first part of the fine control lemma.
Lemma 9 One has

Proof: Let
be standard reals such that
. I don’t think the constants here actually matter; we just need
or something. Anyways, summing up two copies of the inequality from the previous lemma with
we have

since

That is,

Indeed,

so

If we square the tautology
then we get

Taking expected values we get

or in other words

where we used the Taylor expansion

obtained by Taylor expanding
about
and applying
. Using

we get

Thus

Dividing both sides by
we have

In particular

Now we treat the imaginary part of
. The previous lemma gave

Writing everything in terms of real and imaginary parts we can expand out

Using the bounds

(Which follow from the previous paragraph and the bound
), we have

Since
is discrete we can find
arbitrarily close to
which meets the hypotheses of the above equation. Therefore

Pkugging everything in, we get

Now
since
is infinitesimal; therefore we can discard that term. 
Now we are ready to prove the second part. The point is that we are ready to dispose of the semi-infinitesimal
. Doing so puts a lower bound on
.
Lemma 10 Let
be a standard compact set. Then for every
,

Proof: Since
is uniformly distributed on
, there is a zero
of
with
. Since
, we can find an infinitesimal
such that

and
. In the previous section we proved

Using
and plugging in
we have

Now

Taking expectations,

Taking a Taylor expansion,

so by Fubini’s theorem

using the previous lemma and
we get

We also have

since
is deterministic (and
, and
; very easy to check!) I think Tao makes a typo here, referring to
, which seems irrelevant. We do have

since
. Plugging in

we get

I think Tao makes another typo, dropping the Big O, but anyways,

so by the triangle inequality

By underspill, then, we can take
. 
We need a result from complex analysis called Jensen’s formula which I hadn’t heard of before.
Theorem 11 (Jensen’s formula) Let
be a holomorphic function with zeroes
and
. Then

In hindsight this is kinda trivial but I never realized it. In fact
is subharmonic and in fact its Laplacian is exactly a linear combination of delta functions at each of the zeroes of
. If you subtract those away then this is just the mean-value property

Let us finally prove the final part. In what follows, implied constants are allowed to depend on
but not on
.
Lemma 12 For any standard
,

Besides,

Proof: Let
be the Haar measure on
. We first prove this when
. Since
is discrete and
is compact, for any standard (or semi-infinitesimal)
, there is a standard compact set

such that

By the previous lemma, if
then

and the same holds when we average in Haar measure:

We have

so, using the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, one has

Meanwhile, if
then the fact that

implies

and hence

We combine these into the unified estimate

valid for all
, hence almost surely. Taking expected values we get

In the last lemma we bounded
so we can absorb all the terms with
in them to get

We also have

(here Tao refers to a mysterious undefined measure
but I’m pretty sure he means
). Putting these integrals together with the integrals over
,

By underspill we can delete
, thus

We now consider the specific case
. Then

Now Tao claims and doesn’t prove

To see this, we expand as

using Fubini’s theorem. Now we use Jensen’s formula with
, which has a zero exactly at
. This seems problematic if
, but we can condition on
. Indeed, if
then we have

which already gives us what we want. Anyways, if
, then by Jensen’s formula,

So that’s how it is. Thus we have

Since
,
, so the same is true of its expected value
. This gives the desired bound

We can use that bound to discard
from the average

thus

Repeating the Jensen’s formula argument from above we see that we can replace
with
for any
. So this holds even if
is not necessarily nonnegative. 